The table below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines in the 2022 election cycle. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. This is the highest rate of congressional incumbents facing contested primaries since at least 2014 and is at least the fourth consecutive cycle where this rate has increased from the previous cycle. For more information on our methodology, click here: In addition to the competitiveness data above, a race may be particularly compelling or meaningful to the balance of power in governments for other reasons. There were 30 U.S. House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022. This section does not include vacant seats filled by special election before November 8, 2022, unless no incumbents appeared on the regular primary ballot for that seat. These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. All rights reserved. Welcome to 338Canada Quebec! Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 435 House elections in 2022. A map of how the 2022 U.S. House districts. A GOP sweep of those Toss Up races would represent a gain of 30 seats, and its not unusual for one party to win the lions share of competitive contests. For a list of seats that opened up as a result of an incumbent losing re-election in a primary, see the following section. Click here for our coverage of special elections to the 117th Congress. The seat of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, whose functions are similar to the delegates, was not up for election this year. Current House: 221 Democrats | 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. Of those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 . All rights reserved. In 2020, Republicans won 26 of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up by POLITICO. We use numbers to expressuncertainty. We rated every race in play in 2022. This data can be used as an indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2022 elections. There were 30 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022. Visit. [47][48], The following table displays members included in the NRCC's Patriot Program for the 2022 election cycle. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. [49] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight.[50][51]. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. A special election for the seat was held concurrently with the general election on November 8. 2022 U.S. House Elections with multiple incumbents. [66][67], Cook's 2022 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2020 election cycle:[68]. [61] Five states (Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained one seat each, and Texas gained two seats. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. United States House of Representatives elections, 2022, Seats open as a result of an incumbent losing a primary, U.S. House races without major party opposition, Non-voting delegate seats up for election in 2022, U.S. House races with two incumbents, 2022, Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2022, Newly created seats after the 2020 census, U.S. House incumbents not running for re-election in 2022. The congressional make up prior to the election was seven Democrats and . Colorado. Apply today! The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania suspended the candidate filing period for the primary election, pending resolution of a redistricting dispute. The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This page provides an overview of the 2022 U.S. House election. 50. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). Even if Republicans fail to win any of the 26 Toss Up races just 1 of the 26 would give them the majority they are currently projected to gain 4 seats. These results indicate that one should interpret the models predictions for Senate seat swing cautiously as relatively large errors are not uncommon. If an incumbent filed to run in a different district than the one they currently represent, Ballotpedia considers the seat they currently represent as open, as long as no incumbent from another district is running in it. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); See how each partys forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the House have changed over time. Forecasts based on this range of generic ballot results are displayed in Table 3. Despite their extremely narrow majorities, the forecasts in Table 3 show that Democrats have a reasonable chance of keeping control of both chambers in the midterm elections if they maintain at least a narrow lead on the generic ballot. Click on the to see the other two. The generic ballot model uses two predictors the generic ballot along with the number of seats defended by the presidents party to generate forecasts of seat swing in midterm elections. Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 but now-Gov. Forty-nine representatives did not seek re-election to their U.S. House seats (not including those who left office early): General elections are often the focal point of election-year media coverage as they determine control of elected offices up and down the ballot. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. RCP Gov Map Race . Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the Solid, Likely or Lean Republican category putting Republicans only two seats away from the majority, according to the forecast. The generic ballot a question in which survey respondents are asked which party they prefer for Congress without providing names of individual candidates has proven to be a useful tool for explaining the national outcomes of House and Senate elections. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Although many of the most competitive primaries take place for open seats or offices that are held by a different party, even high-ranking federal officeholders can lose renomination to primary challengers. The party gained a net of nine districts. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. The Chairman, Committee on Media and Public Affairs, House of Representatives, Benjamin Kalu, has won the election for the seat of Bende Federal . Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. Depending then on which side has the edge in the generic ballot,. Alabama. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. In the Senate data, the point for 2002 is also well above the regression line while points for several other elections including 1962 and 1978 are also well above or below the line. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. 2022 United States House of Representatives Elections in Iowa by county.svg. Looking for the national forecast? His latest book,The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation, and the Rise of Donald Trump, was released in 2018 by Yale University Press. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a senior columnist with Sabatos Crystal Ball. "[63][64][65], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. Forty-four (44) states adopted congressional district maps. -- A large number of races remain close and competitive. This was more than in 2020 but fewer than at any other point in the preceding decade. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r
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